Well we’re still here.

NewImageI guess it really was a case of the Mayan artisans running out of space on the stone.

Either We’re still here or I woke up dead this morning and haven’t really noticed.

I am of course watching for signs of reality failing you know… Like in The Matrix.

Thus far gravity and physics all appear to be in order.

I have noticed that people are perhaps a bit nicer today… Maybe it’s the relief that nothing happened. They’ll return to their nasty selves once the relief has worn off.

I did have the nicest little moment this morning.

Unfortunately I didn’t have my camera or phone with me to capture it.

I was standing out on the front deck sort of enjoying the world when a young coyote came trotting up the street. By nature these critters are very skittish and you don’t often get an opportunity to just watch them.

This guy didn’t know I was there and I froze silently waiting to see what he was going to do.

The coyote was beautiful, obviously young and I really enjoyed watching it paw at the snow and sniff the air. At first I didn’t understand what it was doing then I realized it was eating the snow so that it could get a drink. Makes sense because it’s been bitterly cold here and most standing sources of water are frozen.

I couldn’t tell but the coyote seemed almost lost. It was sniffing the air and would start to walk then catch scent of something new. It would investigate and then move on. After a short trip up the road it turned around and walked back in front of me again.

Then it turned and went up the main road, crossing toward the mountain. 

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I couldn’t help but appreciate the beauty of the animal and while I know some people call them a nuisance I can’t get past the feeling that they have every much right to be here as I do.

I’m grateful that I got to have a few minutes of that special peace that I feel when I’m watching something wild and beautiful.

I hope the little coyote found his pack again. 

Was it all a tempest in a teakettle?

 

I have no idea what’s going on.

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This morning I’ve run across several articles in the Register saying that new data analysis of global warming data may suggest that all the hubbub was in fact static.

One article in The Register suggests that global warming has been stalled since 1998.. New looks at the data, suggest that since 1950 the overall global temp has risen by only 1/2 a degree. 

Like all news media, I’m not sure that I trust The Registers reporting or their ability to even understand what they’re reporting well enough to be accurate.

However It’s intriguing to me that after all the wringing of hands and wailing… Things may not be as bad as we’ve been led to believe.

Normally I’d call this a “one off” but then the same publication reports has two other articles where they quote other sources suggesting a direct conflict with “accepted climate change facts”.

This article says that there’ve been no increases in droughts since 1950. But the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in a 2007 assessment says “More intense and longer droughts have been observed over wider areas since the 1970s.”

The article says that as our data modeling gets more refined the statistics regarding global drought were over estimated.

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The IPCC 2007 report has pretty much been debunked as over blown and being wildly alarmist. However this new information will likely put a wooden stake in the IPCC report once and for all.

Another article suggests that yes the Greenland ice sheets are in fact melting. At the current rate of melt they’ll be gone in about 13,000 years. The actual effect on sea levels from the Greenland ice melt will be about a 5 cm increase in ocean levels by 2130. This is far less of a “lets scream and run around in little circles.” than has been reported in the media.

Yet Another article details the investigation into why Antarctic ice sheets are growing… This growth is limiting confidence in climate predictions. Scientists from NASA and the British Antarctic Survey have teamed up to see if they can unravel the reason for the ice growth.

None of this information is reason to go burn down a forest, or open a strip mining operation in Alaska. 

The publication of theses articles and the new data shouldn’t  be cause for us to stop being responsible inhabitants of the planet. We should continue to reduce our toxic emissions. We should search for energy sources that don’t damage the environment. That’s just being smart and responsible.

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The common thread in each of the articles is that the data used to support the Global Warming arguments, AKA “Climate Change”  is plagued with signal noise.

Think of it like when the radios in our cars were AM only.

The further you’d get away from a town the more static you’d hear until finally you were only able to catch a word or two every few seconds.

The temperature and climate data is like that. You could perhaps make a sentence out of the one or two words you heard every couple of seconds. The accuracy of that sentence would be highly suspect.

Climate scientists are re-evaluating their data and applying better software techniques to filter out the “noise”. 

Couple these techniques with more sophisticated satellites and monitoring equipment and you get much higher accuracy. Then if you take the data feeds from the Mars satellites and instruments you’ve got the ability to make comparisons and refine our data about Earth.

This is part of normal scientific process.

Another part of this process is that you need to have scientists who are free to ask questions and express their opinions.

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Consider for a moment how the press, governments, other scientists, and people in general treated scientists who questioned the claims that run away global warming was upon us and that the entire planet was going to burn… Next year!

Many of those scientists had their lives and careers destroyed. Simply because they chose to look at the data objectively and critically, which by the way they were trained to do. 

None of those scientists said it wasn’t a problem, they said the data was inconclusive. And they were right

Something to think about before you shout down someone with a different opinion than your own.

Just Saying…


UPDATE

Since I saw the articles mentioned above yesterday, there have been several new articles that say OH NO… the Ice is really melting.

The most recent one is Here

Which of course kind of proves the point. The data is full of noise. 

Given that there is so much conflicting data, obviously further study is needed to understand what exactly is happening.

Again I re-iterate Just because the data is inconclusive and changing doesn’t mean that we have any right to be irresponsible in our utilization of the planetary resources.

We must change, we must learn to use less, recycle more, and in general be more efficient in our energy use. 

I’ve long advocated that in a computer age, with our communication technologies we shouldn’t all be driving to our places of business. If your business is digital in nature you don’t have to be in a cubicle in the heart of an office block 40 miles from your home. You can do your job from your computer in your home office just as easily.

That alone would reduce the amount of auto exhaust daily. But thinking more “outside the box” could take us so much further. We need to change our way of thinking about work, management, and efficiency.

The Hangman by Maurice Ogden

I was looking for the old quote attributed to pastor Martin Niemöller about the Nazi purges of the various groups perceived as threats to the Reich.

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First they came for the communists,
and I didn’t speak out because I wasn’t a communist.

Then they came for the socialists,
and I didn’t speak out because I wasn’t a socialist.

Then they came for the trade unionists,
and I didn’t speak out because I wasn’t a trade unionist.

Then they came for me,
and there was no one left to speak for me.

While looking for this quote, I came across a poem that speaks to the same subject.

I like both for their cautionary tones.

I’m worried that we are losing our way, in that we too easily choose a group to blame or demand compensation from.

I find myself asking more often these days, what defines a minority? Your first thought might be to say a person of color. That could be true.

But a minority is more than that. Wikipedia, provides this definition.

Which leads me to why I was looking for Niemöllers quote in the first place.

We as a country have apparently come to the conclusion that wealth is bad. We’ve arbitrarily decided that the “Wealthy” can pay more taxes.

The definition of  “Wealthy” is also variable and apparently chosen based on the needs of the state.

California has defined household incomes greater than $250,000 as wealthy and therefore subject to increased state taxation.

You realize that $250,000 could well be the income for a young Physician and his Stock broker spouse. Both of whom are trying to pay off $150,000 each in student loans.

The arbitrariness of the definition of Wealth begs the question for me.

If the State doesn’t solve it’s budget crisis… Will the politicians decide $100,000 in household income is Wealthy? Where does that line of reasoning end? $50,000?

We have politicians in Washington DC making similar statements about the “Wealthy” being able to pay a little bit more…

I’m concerned that this kind of thinking is a very slippery slope.

Don’t get me wrong… the Wealthy people that have sold our country out from under us, and off shored jobs, who’ve raped, pillaged, plundered, and employed slash and burn techniques on the American economy that MADE them wealthy.

Oh, they richly deserve punishment!

BUT Their punishment shouldn’t come at the sacrifice equal taxation and representation. Let the wealthy peoples tax breaks expire but levying higher taxes on a minority group is certainly as unfair as the tax breaks this group enjoyed.

Presented for your consideration by a centrist Republican who is interested in equality and even social justice.

So long as those things happen… Justly.

The Hangman by Maurice Ogden

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Into our town the hangman came, smelling of gold and blood and flame. He paced our bricks with a different air, and built his frame on the courthouse square. The scaffold stood by the courthouse side, only as wide as the door was wide with a frame as tall, or a little more, than the capping sill of the courthouse door.

And we wondered whenever we had the time, Who the criminal? What the crime? The hangman judged with the yellow twist of knotted hemp in his busy fist.

And innocent though we were with dread, we passed those eyes of buckshot lead. Till one cried, “Hangman, who is he, for whom you raised the gallows-tree?”

Then a twinkle grew in his buckshot eye and he gave a riddle instead of reply. “He who serves me best,” said he “Shall earn the rope on the gallows-tree.”

And he stepped down and laid his hand on a man who came from another land. And we breathed again, for anothers grief at the hangmans hand, was our relief.

And the gallows frame on the courthouse lawn by tomorrow’s sun would be struck and gone. So we gave him way and no one spoke out of respect for his hangmans cloak.

The next day’s sun looked mildly down on roof and street in our quiet town; and stark and black in the morning air the gallows-tree on the courthouse square.

And the hangman stood at his usual stand with the yellow hemp in his busy hand. With his buckshot eye and his jaw like a pike, and his air so knowing and business-like.

And we cried, “Hangman, have you not done, yesterday with the alien one?” Then we fell silent and stood amazed. “Oh, not for him was the gallows raised.”

He laughed a laugh as he looked at us, “Do you think I’ve gone to all this fuss, To hang one man? That’s the thing I do. To stretch the rope when the rope is new.”

Above our silence a voice cried “Shame!” and into our midst the hangman came; to that mans place, “Do you hold,” said he, “With him that was meat for the gallows-tree?”

He laid his hand on that one’s arm and we shrank back in quick alarm. We gave him way, and no one spoke, out of fear of the hangmans cloak.

That night we saw with dread surprise the hangmans scaffold had grown in size. Fed by the blood beneath the chute, the gallows-tree had taken root.

Now as wide, or a little more than the steps that led to the courthouse door. As tall as the writing, or nearly as tall, half way up on the courthouse wall.

The third he took, we had all heard tell, was a usurer…, an infidel. And “What” said the hangman, “Have you to do with the gallows-bound…, and he a Jew?”

And we cried out, “Is this one he who has served you well and faithfully?” The hangman smiled, “It’s a clever scheme to try the strength of the gallows beam.”

The fourth man’s dark accusing song had scratched our comfort hard and long. “And what concern,” he gave us back, “Have you … for the doomed and black?”

The fifth, the sixth, and we cried again, “Hangman, hangman, is this the man?” “It’s a trick”, said he, “that we hangman know for easing the trap when the trap springs slow.”

And so we ceased and asked no more as the hangman tallied his bloody score. And sun by sun, and night by night the gallows grew to monstrous height.

The wings of the scaffold opened wide until they covered the square from side to side. And the monster cross beam looking down, cast its shadow across the town.

Then through the town the hangman came and called through the empy streets…my name. I looked at the gallows soaring tall and thought … there’s no one left at all

for hanging … and so he called to me to help take down the gallows-tree. And I went out with right good hope to the hangmans tree and the hangmans rope.

He smiled at me as I came down to the courthouse square…through the silent town. Supple and stretched in his busy hand, was the yellow twist of hempen strand.

He whistled his tune as he tried the trap and it sprang down with a ready snap. Then with a smile of awful command, He laid his hand upon my hand.

“You tricked me Hangman.” I shouted then, “That your scaffold was built for other men, and I’m no henchman of yours.” I cried. “You lied to me Hangman, foully lied.”

Then a twinkle grew in his buckshot eye, “Lied to you…tricked you?” He said “Not I… for I answered straight and told you true. The scaffold was raised for none but you.”

“For who has served more faithfully? With your coward’s hope.” said He, “And where are the others that might have stood side by your side, in the common good?”

“Dead!” I answered, and amiably “Murdered,” the Hangman corrected me. “First the alien … then the Jew. I did no more than you let me do.”

Beneath the beam that blocked the sky none before stood so alone as I. The Hangman then strapped me…with no voice there to cry “Stay!” … for me in the empty square.

Here’s an exercise in spin for you… Be warned your head may hurt.

Before my Liberal friends form a lynch mob… I’m playing here… It’s a Joke… Well a half joke… 

In truth, I wrote this just to stir the pot. I think that anyone with little effort can spin anything any way they want.  This is my attempt at proving that “Facts” are just a matter of spin. I hope you enjoy it.

The banking collapse was in fact caused by Liberal Democrats, not Conservative Republicans.

Lets look at the facts.

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Many liberals believe that it’s wrong to deport illegal workers (This is a term that I use to mean inclusively any person who has entered this country illegally. )

That the term illegal workers has come to be synonymous with Illegal hispanic workers is a discussion for another time. I will say this… if a term has come to be redefined as descriptive of a situation, well perhaps you need to ask how that came to be…

Many liberals believe that housing must  be equal opportunity no matter what. (I also believe that housing should be equal opportunity, meaning that if you can afford a home or apartment you shouldn’t be denied access to that home or apartment based on race, color, creed, sexuality, or religion.)

Many liberals believe that  higher education is a right, not a privilege and as a result have enacted a multitude of affirmative action policies nationwide.

Many of those affirmative action laws, regulations, and policies have been expanded to apply to more than education and now apply in a variety of other aspects of our society including banking.

Having worked in the mortgage banking industry approximately 4 years before the collapse (I got out because I saw it coming) I got to see some things from the inside.

Remember No document loans?

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How about reverse amortization loans?

These “products”  were a direct result of mortgage lenders complying with affirmative action regulations. 

The mortgage bankers I worked for felt that they couldn’t deny a loan application because affirmative action regulations demanded a certain percentage of what was called “B & C” paper be accepted by a bank. Think of it like “Assigned risk in insurance.”

Essentially, these “B & C” designations were loans to people who were far more likely to default than the so called “A” paper loans.

Sadly the “A, B, & C” paper loans shook out along largely racial lines due to underlying aspects of our society. 

This meant that someone like myself (A paper) who was employed, had a mortgage, had never been late on a payment, was making more money than I ever had in my life, and who wanted to refinance my house at a lower percentage rate without taking any money out of it, and who provided documentation to all of the above…

Would be scrutinized to a maddening degree and even had to answer questions like “Why has your income increased?

No Shit! The fact that I was making more money was actually a bone of contention between me and the underwriter. It pissed me off to the point that I told her I’d quit my job if that would make it easier on her then we could average my income over the past decade.

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The mortgage lender I was working for at the time did not hold my mortgage… but over lunch one day I asked WTF? of an underwriter I knew well.

His answer was that since I had a history and had provided all kinds of documentation, the underwriters had to do a full process where they, by banking regulations checked everything about the loan they were going to fund.

He went on to say that if I’d gone for a new house instead of a refi, and the loan had been a “Jumbo Loan” I could have gone with a no document loan and been approved within a week.

I still didn’t get it. 

My underwriter friend explained,  because of equal opportunity lending regulations and HUD rules, and half a dozen other regulations designed to prevent discrimination,  the no doc loans had become known as the Housekeeper loans and I’d have qualified easily for one of those.

He’d seen 800,000 loans approved for gardeners in Orange County. After the loan was approved, typically within 120 days the first payment was late.

Then another department in the company we worked for would start calling and asking for payments to be made including late fees.

The late fees were always paid first and the remainder of whatever payment we got was sent to the mortgage holder. This was called “servicing” a loan. It was / is a very profitable enterprise. This is especially true when only a partial payment gets sent to the mortgage holder because the cycle can repeat several times a month on the entire amount that is in arrears. The late fees keep stacking up and the profit for the loan servicer keeps increasing.

It was the interaction of protections for the poor, affirmative action,  the lack of proper identification requirements, the right to privacy about where you obtained your income, and other liberal progressive factors that created the no document loan in the first place.

The banking industry simply made all of these regulations profitable!

These loans were given  to people who sometimes didn’t understand what they were signing and at other times actually couldn’t write their own names.

Then the loan was packaged up as an investment portfolio that was mandated by law to have a specific % of A, B, & C paper loans. The completed portfolio was sold to a wall street firm.

Back to my original statement…

It was the liberal demands for equality in lending, and housing, their insistence on not deporting illegal workers, the bleeding heart progressive agenda, and complete lack of concern or perhaps the liberal demonization of profit and business, that is in fact responsible for the banking collapse.

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By forcing the banking industry to approve a percentage of questionable loans that the banking industry normally wouldn’t have approved, the liberals created the housing bubble. Simultaneously making it far more difficult for honest citizens to carry on with their lives and pursuit of the American Dream.

The evil banking industry was just following orders.

 

 

I guess it’s just my lot in life…

As I’ve mentioned elsewhere, I’ve been a technology guy for almost 30 years.

Now I’m unemployed and have been looking for a new job for the better part of 18 months.

Usually I can’t get the time of day from the places that I apply to. Those placement firms that do contact me are often not much more that one step above spammers.

Got a call from one of these guys the other day, He was obviously Indian and his English pronunciation was so poor that I had no idea what he was saying. I finally got him to send me an email with the job description. His written English was only marginally better, which explains why he was trying to match me up with a position that was almost completely NOT anything I can do.

I find myself wondering things like why can’t I get any decent leads.

I’m still working on that one… but I’m beginning to wonder if I’m not paying back some seriously big karmic debt.

Many of the companies that I’ve applied to, I also do occasional business with. This morning I was looking around online for a decent six or seven port USB Hub. 

As I wandered through the myriad websites I kept seeing one defect after another.

These are major, nationally known companies who advertise and sell their products on the web and yet I was seeing things like;

Dead links,

Typos,

Dialog boxes that were blank, (I mean… just a white box with nothing in it.)

Check boxes that appear unchecked yet if you do check them, to narrow your search you actually destroy your search results.

Oh, and these companies… all have either flat out told me that I wasn’t good enough to work for them, or they simply have never responded to my inquiries.

While I many not be good enough to work for them, clearly their existing staff sucks!

Part of the problem is this. 

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All of these companies want someone that has long list of software development methodology certifications. To date I’ve worked with virtually every methodology.

However, I’ve never bothered to get certified in any of them, for the following reasons;

1) The certifications are very expensive and often required me to burn my vacation time and pay for the seminar and the hotel & food costs. Often as not just sitting through the seminar got you the certification.

I don’t believe in buying certifications. If that’s what I’m doing… then let me send you the $1000 and you send me the paper with my little name printed on it, and we’re done.  

I think that there should be something a little more structured and some accountability or grading must be built into the system.

Then there’s this thought… I have one miserable week of vacation. Do I spend it at an expensive seminar in a hotel conference room or do I spend that week on a beach somewhere? Let’s think about this for all of a nano-second! If I’m going to spend my vacation time and have to pay for a hotel and transportation… I’m going diving in the Caribbean!

2)  These methodologies are ever changing and in fact I’ve worked for companies where the methodology changed as frequently as the upper management did. It was simply impossible to keep up with the method du jour and as a result, the certifications were pretty much pointless.

3) These methodologies claim in some circles to be a standard. But in point of fact they are really only the framework of a software development philosophy that allows for variable implementation based on the needs, desires, and whims of the corporation where the method is being used. 

The practical upshot of this is that a new employee starts out having to learn how the company has implemented a particular methodology whether they’ve got the certifications or not.

4) I have noticed through the years that regardless of the published “Methodology”, corporate “Procedures”, or even ISO standards all go right out the window when the project is late,  (Every Software Project ends up being LATE). Which means that Agile is pretty much the defacto standard of ALL software development regardless of the corporate sales pitch.

5) I’ve actually been involved in companies where the process was so complex that it actually impeded the development and testing processes. In these companies, I only got 3 hours of work done on software I was testing per day. The other 5 or 6 hours of my day were spent in meetings, explaining what testing was being done and WHY the testing was going so slowly

REALLY?

In point of fact it wasn’t the methodology, it was the implementation.

I’ve always thought it was funny how almost anything begins to take on the worst aspects of religion. Christianity, Islam, Judaism, Agile,SCRUM, PC vs. Mac, iPhone vs. Android…

None of them are inherently bad ideas or philosophies but all of them suffer from problems introduced by zealots.

I guess now it’s time for me to pay for some stupid seminar where the badge of honor is that I have a certificate saying I sat through the seminar.

At least I could legitimately say I’m certified in one of these things…  That 30 years of experience is irrelevant but a silly certification in a software development methodology is annoys me beyond belief.

4246303 683742 cocktail a mix of various drinks sometimes alcoholic drinks

I could take my laptop and spend the time writing and half listening. God! The soul crushing boredom  of seminars like this makes me cringe. When I’ve attended these kinds of seminars in the past,  at the end of the day I headed straight for the hotel bar and worked on anesthetizing myself… All the while having to listen to other folks from the seminar gushing about the importance of the words of the presenter… aka The Prophet. 

Meanwhile, I’m looking for the nearest exit and wondering if I can find another convenient bar where I don’t have to listen to a rehash of the day faithfully regurgitated by those who’ve drunk the kool aid.

I suppose it’s jaded cynicism on my part. A large part of my inherent resistance comes from knowing these methods, don’t make me a better tester. It just means that I’m going to be better able to recognize when someone is wasting time in needless meetings.

Which leads me back to Karma…

Am I now paying the price for not drinking the kool aid? Are the errors I’m seeing on web sites the not so subtle reminders that my choice not to play the latest corporate mental masturbation game has left me on the outside?

I still stand 100% by my conviction that as a Software Quality Assurance Analyst, knowledge or lack thereof about these philosophies won’t change the quality of the software.

Actually testing the software will. 

My Karma is to be unable to ignore software defects, and to seemingly bring out defects simply by wanting to use software as a normal user. 

I guess, I was a serious asshole to someone in a previous life. 

Now where was that catalog of obscenely priced seminars????